IT market growth for 2012:Forrester foresees weak IT market growth for 2012

According to its latest report Global Tech Market Outlook for 2011 & 2012, Forrester Research predicted the current global tech purchases will be US$2 trillion in 2011 growing at 11.5 per cent in 2011, but the growth rate will slowdown to 5.5 per cent in 2012. This, according to Forrester, will be primarily as of the slowest growth in IT markets of Western and Central Europe at around 3.8 per cent in 2012 against 6 per cent in 2010.

Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin American markets, however, will appreciate at the highest number of 12 per cent. The US market at $802 billion, the largest in the world, will as well grow slower at 6.4 per cent in 2012. Said Forrester Research Vice President and Principal Analyst Andrew Bartels, “The global tech industry should grow moderately despite out of country arena trepidations casting shadows on the outlook.”

This is absolutely bad to know for the Indian IT world as nearly 90 per cent of its $70 billion revenue comes from software exports to the US and European markets. The industry body Nasscom, however, is not concerned as its President Som Mittal argued on Thursday the present the industry is yet to see any mean of IT budget cut by egregious clients. “So far no one has reported any contraction in IT spending. But if the Euro zone crumbles, the whole world will be in trouble, as well as the IT industry here” Mittal said.

The US and European economies are dancing on the edge of a recession but haven’t yet fallen. As a result, the outlook for the worldwide market for business and government purchases of technology goods and services will see slowing, though still sure growth, in 2012. Forrester said the raise in 2011 would be better, because vendors have had two quarters of primarily solid demand before economic weakness surfaced in July and August, and overly weakness won’t lead to slower tech boom growth until Q4 2011. For 2011, these things plus a weaker US dollar mean that global IT market growth will be 11.5 per cent but the currency-adjusted growth rate would be 7.7 per cent.

The US boom is barely expanding as the US Department of Commerce released changed data on US gross domestic product, that showed that US real GDP had risen by only 0.4 per cent in Q1 2011. Similarly, feeble response to European debt problems and too much austerity has dwindle European growth. In Europe, real GDP growth of 3.4 per cent Q1 2011 turned into second quarter growth of 0.8 per cent. The only positive economic news has arrive based on data from the emerging markets of Latin America; Eastern Europe; the Middle East and Africa; and Asia Pacific.

These economies hold continued to post strong growth, providing a lift to exports from what i read in the US and Europe and keeping those economies from slipping into recession. “However, inflation has kept on on the grow in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), raising the risk that their central banks’ tightening of monetary policy to tame inflation may overshoot, causing growth in these markets to drop,” the report said.

Among the IT market, spending on software (market size about $509 billion in 2011) will grow at 6.2 per cent in 2012 against 2011 growth of 8.1 per cent, Forrester said. Among the other segments of the market, IT Outsourcing (size Rs $ 352 billion), IT consulting and systems integration ($ 405 billion) and computer arrangements ($ 416 billion) is expected to augment at 6.3 per cent, 7.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent, in 2012.
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